Abstract:Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) are widely used for short-term forecasting in dynamic physical systems such as traffic and weather. However, the prevailing evaluation practice uses real world benchmark data sets in a single domain with a single fixed holdout splits, making it difficult to compare architectures across different dynamical regimes. We introduce ChaosNetBench (CNB), a synthetic benchmark dataset and evaluation framework for studying STGNN performance under controlled multidimensional chaotic dynamics. CNB is built on a lattice of coupled standard maps with independently tunable local chaos ($K$), coupling strength ($\varepsilon$), and system size ($N$), providing known topology and known dynamics across 96 system instances and 9{,}600 trajectories. We introduce chaos indicators, evaluation metrics and a protocol to analyze and compare the capacity of STGNN architectures to deal with different levels of local and global chaos. We illustrate the usage of the framework by analyzing 13 architectures (5 STGNNs and 8 non-graph baselines). The results reveal a regime dependent transition in which non-graph baselines (TCN, N-BEATS, iTransformer) remain competitive when there is low local chaos, while STGNNs (e.g., Graph WaveNet, D2STGNN, STAEformer) are generally more resilient to higher levels of local and global chaos. CNB provides a practical, reusable testbed for systematically comparing and analyzing the capacity of STGNN architectures to handle different levels of local and global chaos.
| Comments: | 24 pages, 11 figures |
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Chaotic Dynamics (nlin.CD) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2605.09676 [cs.LG] |
| (or arXiv:2605.09676v1 [cs.LG] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.09676 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration) |
Submission history
From: Henok Tenaw Moges Henok [view email]
[v1]
Sun, 10 May 2026 17:45:53 UTC (1,072 KB)