Abstract:We study supervised multiclass classification for diffusion processes, where each class is characterized by a distinct drift function and trajectories are observed at discrete times. We first derive a multidimensional Bayes rule and then construct a plug-in classifier by estimating the class-specific drifts with neural networks. Under standard regularity assumptions, we establish convergence rates for the excess misclassification risk, making explicit the contributions of drift estimation, time discretization, and dimension. Our analysis also highlights the benefit of exploiting the diffusion structure: the drift is learned from all observed increments, leading to sharper guarantees than direct trajectory-based neural classifiers in the considered setting. Numerical experiments support the theory: the proposed method achieves better classification performance than Denis et al. (2024) in dimension one, remains effective in higher dimensions when the drift functions admit a compositional structure, and outperforms end-to-end neural classifiers trained directly on trajectories, as in Bos & Schmidt-Hieber (2022).
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Statistics Theory (math.ST) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2602.02791 [stat.ML] |
| (or arXiv:2602.02791v2 [stat.ML] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.02791 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite |
Submission history
From: Yuzhen Zhao [view email]
[v1]
Mon, 2 Feb 2026 20:48:01 UTC (459 KB)
[v2]
Wed, 13 May 2026 11:37:39 UTC (702 KB)