Abstract:Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional, multimodal distributions, their deployment in real-time streaming settings typically relies on repeatedly sampling from a non-informative initial distribution. This results in substantial inference latency, particularly when multiple samples are needed to characterize the predictive distribution. In this work, we introduce Sequential Bayesian Flow Matching, a framework inspired by Bayesian filtering. By learning a probability flow that transports the posterior distribution from one time step to the next time step conditioned on new observations, it mirrors the recursive structure of Bayesian belief updates. Crucially, by using the previous belief as an informative source distribution, it enables substantially faster sampling than naive resampling from scratch. Across scientific forecasting tasks spanning accelerator beam spill dynamics, fluid dynamics, and weather forecasting, as well as decision-making benchmarks, our method achieves performance competitive with full-step diffusion on distributional metrics while using far fewer sampling steps, substantially reducing inference latency. Our code is available at this https URL.
| Subjects: | Machine Learning (cs.LG) |
| Cite as: | arXiv:2602.05319 [cs.LG] |
| (or arXiv:2602.05319v3 [cs.LG] for this version) | |
| https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.05319 arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite |
Submission history
From: Yinan Huang [view email]
[v1]
Thu, 5 Feb 2026 05:37:14 UTC (689 KB)
[v2]
Sun, 15 Feb 2026 23:37:05 UTC (684 KB)
[v3]
Wed, 13 May 2026 19:40:40 UTC (469 KB)