NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - Artificial intelligence is set to contribute to more accurate hurricane forecasts going into the 2026 season.
Google DeepMind’s AI weather model was one of the top-performing tools for storm track in 2025, according to Google and the National Hurricane Center. When comparing AI to the physics-based models and human forecasters, it outperformed both.
AI weather models work differently from traditional physics-based models. Instead of solving physics equations, AI uses neural networks trained on decades of weather data to recognize patterns and predict what may happen next.
“What they do is they say to this network, again it’s called a neural network, it’s sort of like your brain,” FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross explains. “They say here is the way the world has worked in the past, and they go back about 50 years or so. Now project that out to the future.”
Norcross said that the process of allowing AI models to compare past weather with current conditions is great for forecasting.
“Through this process of comparing to the past and predicting the future, different parts of it make different predictions, and then it comes to a conclusion very, very quickly about what the best chance is for the future,” Norcross said. “And that fits weather forecasting really, really well.”
Track forecasting has already improved over the years. One example is the shrinking cone of uncertainty, which shows how much more accurate track forecasts have become since storms like Hurricane Katrina back in 2005.
Now, meteorologists say AI could help push forecasting even further by giving them faster and cheaper models to use alongside traditional guidance.
“I think we’re going to go more and more to AI models,” Norcross said. “Because even if they perform just as well, they are so much cheaper and easier to run and run more quickly. And in theory can be updated more often.”
More data in the hands of meteorologists could lead to more timely storm updates and better track accuracy. The National Hurricane Center said it is evaluating several AI models, including tools from Google DeepMind, NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
“It’s moving really fast,” Norcross said. “I’ve never in my life seen things move this quickly, both in the science and the operations at the National Hurricane Center. A real tribute to them. They are adopting this technology at an absolute record pace.”
NOAA said new technology, advanced models and artificial intelligence are being deployed for the 2026 hurricane season to improve hurricane forecasts.
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